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Bernstein Research: People simply do not want Windows Phone

Ballmer Like WP

According to Bernstein Research's Pierre Ferragu, who has joined Nokia and Windows Phone skeptics, consumers simply don't want Microsoft's mobile platform, no matter which OEM pumps out hardware - it's just too little too late. It was thought that Microsoft could see a surge of interest in Windows Phone due to the results of the Apple and Samsung patent battle, which we covered earlier this week.

Ferragu believes the Windows Phone situation (low marketshare and activations) will not improve any time soon and any pressure on Android will have little effect, if any. 

"Our research shows that for many years, poor sales of Windows-based phones stem from a deep and stable lack of consumer interest for the product. Despite numerous and repeated efforts of manufacturers (Nokia, but also Samsung and HTC) and Operators to develop an alternative to Android and Apple based on Windows, and despite the launch of numerous phones based on Windows with strong features, reviews and marketing support, the operating system remains cornered to less than 5% market share in smartphones."

While it doesn't take a genius to work out Microsoft and partners are in a spot of bother when it comes to Windows Phone, we (as well as Microsoft) are aware of the long and difficult path ahead. No one said it was going to be easy. Microsoft even stated many times they are in a marathon, not a sprint. Ferragu continues:

"The situation of Windows in mobile phones is now very unlikely to revert. Smartphone Operating Systems benefit from ecosystem dynamics in terms of application ecosystem but most importantly consumer advocacy and adoption. Given the strength of Android and Apple today in consumers’ minds and the scale of both ecosystems, it is unrealistic to believe anything short of a true product revolution, like the iPhone was in its time, could instil life into an alternative platform."

Ferragu believes there's greater chance for Microsoft to succeed with tablets running Windows 8, and with what we've seen today from Samsung, we'd look to agree with such a statement - OEM partners have thrown considerable weight behind Windows-on-the-move. But one cannot simply rule out Windows Phone. 

ATIV Lineup

As well as noting the above, Ferragu also goes on to explain how he believes Nokia's patent catalogue is worth less with Apple's victory over Samsung, and ends by modelling €0.50 to €1.50 per share in royalty value to Nokia of those patents.

"Last week’s ruling showed Apple was able to bag in significant court victories with its patents relating to software and screen experience, despite Samsung and more broadly the Android camp now having access to a deep portfolio of more traditional wireless patents (Samsung’s own portfolio and Motorola’s portfolio). We don’t believe the ruling has a significant impact on the current declining trajectory of prices in IP transactions that we described in recent research."

It's down to Microsoft to ensure that partners and -more importantly- carriers are actively supporting Windows Phone. Nokia is starting to be seen as a single manufacturer in the Windows Phone ecosystem for the choice, services and exclusive apps available with its Lumia range of smartphones. The likes of HTC and Samsung do release hardware, but software (as well as general) support is lacking compared to the Finnish manufacturer. 

With Windows Phone 8 just around the corner, which will compliment both Windows 8 and Xbox, it's going to be an eventful 2012/13 for sure. A unified UI and innovative hardware will see Windows Phone rise or continue to dwindle on its current trajectory. We've been impressed so far with what Samsung has come up with at IFA 2012 today, the ATIV S (while looking fairly similar to the Galaxy S3) is a modern and attractive device. Nokia, HTC, and other OEMs are yet to unveil Apollo hardware, but if all partners market their Windows Phone lineups to match effort on competitor platforms, we could see a significant rise in marketshare.

Here's hoping anyway. What are your thoughts on Windows Phone's chances to pick up momentum? Do you have high expectations for Nokia with what Samsung has announced so far? Let us know in the comments.

Source: Barron's

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Comments

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haters gonna hate

MastrMeatWad says:

Who paid the group to complete the "research"?  The conclusion is going to to swayed by who is paying them, which is the case with many research groups.  This kind of "research" is done all the time to help image.
Go to berstein's website. http://bernsteinresearchgroup.com/
 If you click on the contact tab it gives you the option to ask for a bid for what the research you want done, "researched".  Their site discusses "focus groups, etc". 
The group did not just decide to do a windows phone research group,  they were paid by someone-company to do it.  It would be an interesting article to find out who paid them and how they arrived to their conclusion.  Did they do a focus group, did they grab a small or large random sampling from every state and demographic, or did they just go to a high school and sit down with the Junior class? 
I would like to see the details..

chadwick611 says:

Word to ya motha, fools always gonna hate

tbonenga says:

Word is Microsoft better get HERO devices from Samsung, Nokia and HTC on all carriers to give people a choice or W8 will never grow.

I think W8 will be fine. It's WP8 I worry about :P

SleepyTheDon says:

Ferragu can kiss my a** hater! They hated on Android too and look what happened. Didnt the dis iPhone as well..? LAME

thats  funny "word"

abiddine says:

Yes they are. People are gonna always go for the trendy thing (like iphone). If Nokia puts out an amazing device then there is nothing stopping them from buying it.. In addition, if Nokia or Microsoft do excellent marketing then the future of Windows Phone is bright. You basicaly have to brainwash people.

surfacenerd says:

I am going to disagree.

jdep1 says:

Same here. It's not over till wp8 comes out.

every clown is entitled to their view but I strongly disagree that no one wants a wphone.

Paul Thurrott posed the following question in several of his frequent articles... why do we still listen to these analysts? They're completely ignorant and for every time they get it part right, they get it completely wrong 9 more times.

He's right on the matter. These agencies exist only to drive the stock market one way or another, and they're about as fickle and volatile as the market itself.

And really, if you took a close look at their predictions, they all have a very low accuracy rating. Why? Simple... they only look at one small aspect of any given announcement. They always fail to look at the big picture.

Windows Phone is struggling, because people just don't hear about it through all the competing noise. Microsoft (and partners) need to make more noise and flash more lights until people pay can catch it.

ThePKReddy says:

I spent 10 minutes with 2 people showing them my HD7. They're sold and looking into the Nokia lineups :-)

ThePKReddy says:

One also mentioned it makes his iPhone look dated and he works in the fashion industry.

ade333 says:

IDC is actually pretty decent, and I don't say that because they have a positive outlook on WP... They actually have a pretty solid approach and history.

mjrtoo says:

So much for encouragement, be must be a zombie of the apple ecosystem unable to escape and is pissed about it. :-)

MastrMeatWad says:

There are those for sure. My coworker is stuck on apple. Knows nothing about wp8 nor wp7 and dogs it because it lacks an apple logo. Just silly.

jerrynomenon says:

MicroSoft already out-Appled APPLE... My i-Phone looks already obsolete regardless of iOS 6. W8+WP8 will be my choice.

JoeDizzle33 says:

I think with windows phone 8 Microsoft will gain momentum and as long as companies such as Samsung develop phones using windows phone 8 the market will continue to expand.

mjfadaway says:

Haters wanna hate, lovers wanna love. I dont even want, none of the above. I wanna piss on you...my research tells me that this research is full of crap.

And I don't want to listen to bullshit research firms that are ran by f'n clowns.

zeronoise says:

"PEOPLE are not interested"-data analyst....ok

Pricop says:

I must agree with this research, guys - when someone does a research and it's in Windows favor everyone is like "yea yea", now you all dislike this, the thing is that I agree with this because currently, in Romania (I know it's a small country with a small market) no one want's to hear about Windows Phone, they only want SII, SIII and iPhone 4S, due to the lack of advertising and small sales percentage, lack of applications and functionalities. Hopefully this is going to be changed when W8 hits the market.
It's quite stupid that WP 7.5 doesn't have bluetooth file transfer, everyone said "Who needs it? Cloud is the future" but guess what? They included in WP8, when the Cloud is even more advanced than before, not to mention that there is no file manager and the list can go on, I'm a Lumia 800 owner and I'm quite dissapointed with it.

Shantek says:

Bluetooth transfer is so 2000. They are only adding it for those people who constantly complain. Sure, its nice to have it but I would barely ever use it.. And what do you need a file manager for on your phone? I prefer a more secured locked down system..

Pricop says:

So you want to tell me that not having a File Manager system the OS is more secured? If so, then I see why are you happy with your WP. /s

I think you have a point, with wp7/8 plating catch up on features. Apps will come, but only of devs think they can make money (which they can) from a wide audience. Its almost a catch 22. I do also agree that the need more and better ads showing the phones, features, and OS.

issieman says:

I have an HTC Titan and am disappointed with the voice quality of the hardware and also disappointed with the incomplete windows7.5. Am taking a break from windows phone for another 2yrs till it sort itself out...

I think we'll know the "fate of 8" by March

September 5th big day Nokia /Microsoft and my team Dallas cowboys vs new York giants :D

If u build it they will come...

TheDoros says:

This made me LoL

blange701 says:

I refused to buy an iPhone or android. Neither platform was anything that appealed to me. Windowsphone was the smartphone os i was waiting for. Glad i did love it and have many friends who left their iPhone and android devices for WP7

Shantek says:

Same here, I know a stack of people who have come to the platform

venetasoft says:

9 friends of mine passed to wp when they tried my Lumia.
This is the real world, not bull*hit.

kidjenius says:

that picture is hilarious!

Aldoron says:

He is not the poster child they need... xD

mjrtoo says:

Yeah, Ballmer is a total douche, they need a better face. Keep that used car salesman locked up in the back. Love MS, but not him.

jbjtkbw00#AC says:

It just bothers me that people want to pass judgment before trying. I was out and about with a friend of mine yesterday, and I swear, every place we went, someone asked about my Lumia 900. The nail salon had them calling other employees over to take a look and the chick at Planet Smoothie asked if she could hold it.

There needs to be more marketing to get this phone into user's hands. Once they've experienced it, its a different ballgame for sure. Analyst exist to blow smoke up everyone's asa that decides to listen. No thanks. I judge for myself and I LOVE my device.

charlyee says:

Moron or on Apple's payroll.

Drewidian says:

I personally think it has more to do with the somewhat tarnished Windows brand, but I think that will be changed with the ecosystem Microsoft is building. If they pull off the integration and attract the developers with the new capabilities, they could eclipse the capabilities of both Android and iOS. Time will tell, but its clear that Microsoft has some brand rebuilding to do.

codylew says:

I agree! A lot comes down to the ecosystem. My brother loves my Focus and wants to get a WP. His wife is an Appledrone and bought him an iPad. She has an iPhone 4s and a Mac Book. So due to the ecosystem established by his wife he just got an iPhone with his upgrade even though he kept walking over to the Lumia 900 and playing with it. He still says today that he wishes he would have held out for a WP8 and W8 tab.
I am the opposite though. I have an xbox and windows laptop and WP7.5. I cannot wait to have give my iPad to my wife and get a WindowsRT8 Tab and complete the ecosystem with a Nokia WP8.
The main thing MS needs to work on is getting carriers to support though. My mom and sister love my windows phone but they didnt get one because the Verizon store didnt have any on display or even for sale in the store. I cant blame them for wanting to touch and feel the phone and use it a bit before commiting for 2 years. Sprint and Tmo are worse which leave ATT as the only one that sells them. When I got mine the salesman was trying hard to push android and iphone eventhough i said several time I know what i want and its a WP. turns out that even the salesman used a focus and once he knew he wasnt changing my mind he started raving about it. WTF!! WP will not succeed without carrier support since the majority of the population are all sheep that just follow the leader and do what they are told.

baileystein says:

I wouldn't say that they don't want it, but they simply can't see it.

dnasmyth says:

When Microsoft introduced Word, Word Perfect had a 95% market share. I still can't understand why they did it. HUGH mistake, they will never get ahead of Word Perfect!

ajwitzel says:

LOL, I was one of those hold-outs clinging to my Word Perfect!  Good point!

This is a perfect analogy. Microsoft has made multiple successes by coming into any given market as the underdog and fighting ... clean, dirty, and everything in between ... until they get it right. And you know what? They're GREAT at it!

I can't think of any other company that succeeds at it over and over and over again. Most companies come in and fail completely, and only once in a while do they get it right one time for a while until the next big thing comes along... ie. Apple. Early successes with Mac, overtaken by Windows. Early success with iPhone and iPad, overtaken by Android and soon to be Windows (again).

Not to say they get it right 100% of the time, but Microsoft has a larger success rate than fail rate. In the IT world, I think back to the dominance of UNIX, and everyone said Windows NT would never beat it... just like Exchange would never be the dominant mail server, Xbox would never beat Nintendo or Sony, and Office would never beat WordPerfect, Lotus 1-2-3, Corel, or Adobe. And the failures they've had? Not a single one of them ever amounted to a significant loss for the company.

I dare anyone to name a single failed product line or service that people still care about today. The only one I can think of that comes close is Windows Mobile, but that's a stretch, since it was successful for its time. You might argue Zune, but I would argue that Zune never really mattered.

To say Zune didn't matter is the only thing I disagree with. Zune lives on with Xbox music and further proves your point, microsofts music service continues to fight on and with 30 million tracks (as opposed to the 12 million on Zune) as well as better integration across all Microsoft services means we could see the service really compete well. The zune brand is tarnished. People connect it with failure and so don't really try it. The excellent zune service continues though. And once it lives on through Xbox branding I'll see all my iTunes loving friends use Xbox music. It'll blow their minds when I tell them that excellent service existed a long time ago with zune.

Munkeyphyst says:

I'd like to add that Zune's OS was the inspiration for WP's revolutionary UI

venetasoft says:

Same for Xbox vs ps

ajwitzel says:

Bernstein Research has missed the mark on this one.  Polls are dime a dozen.  It comes down to someone using a WP, then and only then forming an opinion.  I've used an iPhone and don't care much for it.  I've also used an Android phone, several of them, and also don't care much for them either.
Bottom line is that with exception of 1 or 2 people I've shown my phone to, everyone has liked the interface, its done everything their iPhone/Android phone has done, and they were genuinely impressed with what Microsoft has pulled off.  It's not the same old WinMo of days gone by.
I'm getting a WP8 device, don't know which one, but it will definitely be WP8.  My advice to people is simple, "Don't be lazy and get what your friend has as it might not work for you, test out all the phones, then make a decision."  Plain and simple.

Aldoron says:

I know people who bought iPhones not knowing they were apple products...

dont call it a come back
  

I read so many of these articles regarding Xbox. Anyway it's not the first time this guy bashes WP and MS.

adilici says:

It"s unbelievable that some people are paid huge amounts of money to come up with crap like that... They have no understanding of ecosystems, programming necessities, or the market. A great sdk combined with the full power of the windows platform can bring wp8 on top in less than 2 years. Especially given the relative stagnation of the competition in terms of functionality and ecosystem development... My money is on MS to win.

all we need is more apps and a better official youtube app .they gave them a hotmail,skydrive,myXbox,onenote and we get a shitty youtube app bull ish

hoonigandad says:

It took android Years to become popular, the same is true for windows phone. With people only getting phones every two years, it takes awhile to sell 100 million phones

PolishHitta says:

Itunes came extremely late to the gameplay and look where it is now.

captaincomps says:

Your reporting this item achieves what this firm wants which is publicity garnered from positing a topical opinion. Their 'analysis' does not appear to draw on any meaningful statistical data or provide fresh insight. Increased traction with WP8 will be dependent on how effectively it is marketing and how much support MS puts into improving the platform in terms of customer experience e.g. cracking the iPlayer or flash content access issues which are impacting WP user's experience. Still long road ahead and I'm sticking with WP.

WinFan1 says:

Those guys can sucka my balls

iamoniwaban says:

Ha. Lol..yes they can

Kadcidxa says:

Still sticking to Windows Phone.

rceballos10 says:

I don't expect many to see WP8 as the next "IT" product, rarely anyone does! However, when it happens, everyone will come out their "were not surprised in its success given [insert BS reason here]." Hindsight is alway 20/20... I feel, if Windows 8 succeeds, thru tablets or PC, WP8 will follow. I do see folks owning Android phones and W8 tablets... That's a very good possibility. My hope is MS doesn't place WP8s marketing in the back burner given the pressure to make W8 successful.

My colleagues and I actually DO see Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 eventually succeeding in the IT sector and business. W8 tablets are going to be our saving grace to keep iPads out of the office. I have friends that have them and check email and play games on them and check social networks. OK, but what do they do that means something? Nothing. Enter Surface... now they can do all those same things, BUT suddenly they can do normal work too. Hey, that's pretty cool, and the devices look cool and they work the same as I'm familiar with already. AS for IT, well, Group Policy and ActiveSync Policies mean I have control over my business content... device is stolen, device is wiped.

1jaxstate1 says:

Well, numbers don't lie. So we'll see.

cckgz4 says:

You and these analysts can't just make the "facts" support your argument. In order for people to DENY windows phone, they'd have to KNOW about it right? You and others on MANY occasions have stated no one knows about windows phone. So either its not selling cause no one knows about it or it's not selling cause no one wants it. Don't change your arguments on the day new articles appear

1jaxstate1 says:

Sales number are nothing but FACTS. Saying people don't know about it is an opinion.

Negative opinion comes from those who had Windows Mobile and haven't experienced Windows Phone and people who only love Apple and Google. I have coworkers that demonstrate this often. Neutral opinion comes from those who know nothing about it, because they've never seen it, never heard of it, never used it.

1jaxstate1 says:

That general statement does not work at all. I personally have two friends that have tried WP7 and decided it wasn't for them. One went back to android the other tried iOS. You do realize that some people may just not like WP7.

cckgz4 says:

But you can't ASSume all of those sales numbers stand for people who dislike wp7

WinFan1 says:

Also cannot assume that no one will like it based on your two friends preference is preference but WP has not been given a proper chance as android was given as a viable alternative to ios so stop with speculation and just wait.

Its not that ppl don't want it they just want the apps to go along with it

laserfloyd says:

An overpaid idiot, this guy is. He talks like WP is a single closed ecosystem. Right now its limited but WP changes that big time. We'll have phones, PCs and Xbox all talking to each other. Apple and Android would love to have that. Perception is what has to be worked on more than anything.

psychotron says:

I'm undecided as to which way this is going to go. Perhaps the negative outcome of the Apple v. Samsung case will motivate them to get on board with Nokia and throw more weight behind WP as it could be seen as lower risk than continuing to court Android so heavily. That could potentially affect some kind of uptick in adoption rates since they are already a higher visibility brand internationally. In any case I suppose we'll see about a year from now.

jenjen4u says:

Hmmph even if other people wont want a windows phone i will always want a windows phone! Excited to see what nokia has lined up

ruddevil says:

They didn't do research in the place where I work where WP7 users are now outnumbering iOS. Probably an outdated research basing on Omnia 2.

dougwallace says:

Load of crap. If it is good it is good.

GMJeff says:

Didn't analysts also say the Xbox was doomed to fail. Now where are they at?

MastrMeatWad says:

yup. If done right the ecosystem of CPU, tablets, Xbox, and now wp will help if done right

zacman says:

Well, MS predicted 2008 that they will have 30% market share by the end of 2012...

_Haitian says:

They clearly haven't heard the story of the turtle and the hare

myrandex says:

Its a shame. I've shown windows phone off, side by side with Android phones and iPhones, and people I've shown then too really like it. Some have complained about lack of Verizon models, but others say that they never knew about it (come on marketing and advertising!) or never tried one out in person (that is what made the difference to me).

TechAbstract says:

If they can get the carriers to advertise WP8. WP8 market share will rise quick. The only phone that has had any advertisement from the carrier is the Lumia 900. I went to AT&T the other day, they still promote the Lumia 900 on their small monitor.

Jazmac says:

Ooooo its painful stuff Samsung and google is enduring after the Samsung piracy team got their conchakas handed to em by Apple Inc. They were warned over and over and they listened to Google anyway and pirated Apple's IP. They are now paying any and everybody to hate on Windows Phone 8. lol

danzinho16 says:

People simply do not want his opinion either.

MastrMeatWad says:

I remember 3 years ago this was said about google. Android will never catch up to the iPhone....now look

Varsi9 says:

I am glad someone can tell me what to think.

bono5112 says:

I'm gonna bring this back to WORD!!!!!!!

MastrMeatWad says:

also stats and surveys are rarely done to reflect an accurate whole picture. What, when, where, and who did they sample. I can pick any area, demographic, age, etc to cater to0 the results i want.

iSeeiSheep says:

Microsoft needs develop stronger advertising that actually sells WP8.

Apple has cut MS to ribbons historically but I can see some slick ad opportunities.

The Virus Lie Commercial

(WIN) Hey MAC, you look a bit green?

(MAC) Yeah I got a virus and I don't feel so good.

(WIN) But MAC, your users said you don't get viruses.

(MAC) My users will believe anything we say. Ouch, hard drive hurts and I think I infected that Siri chick!

danjer says:

Here's a research for you: nobody buys the phone displayed in the back of the store.

danjer says:

Research #2: if the salesperson says you don't want it then you're unlikely to buy it.

JD Miles says:

your two comments have been my direct experience any( All )of the AT&T stores I have been in when I was deciding to buy my original Focus (great phone by the way). That,s two stores in Abilene Tx and five ! in Springfield Missouri. The store faboys have been the number one reason people do not consider the WP as a viable option, they flat try to talk you out of considering Windows phones.

ejlee072006 says:

Hate all they can

westwaswon says:

It is clearly an uphill battle that can only be won, like the critic says, by major innovation. I think Microsoft has checked that box and its just a matter of getting others to see and agree with that. May happen but may not. Not everything is appreciated in its time. Zune HD being a great example. I'm optimistic though.

BK-one says:

One man's opinion

iqbalsn says:

The way i see it, Windows Phone 8 will need to piggy back on to the back of successful windows 8 adoption. That's the only way we'll see wp takes off. If ever.

justerand says:

You own your money and choose freely as you want. Hell with research. I chose my love at first sight at my Lumia. You don't give me money to force buying iPhone or Android. Done.

issieman says:

Remember the words .. Reality distortion field....

issieman says:

The SDK is not out yet September is the release date for windows phone. That doesn't leave developers with anytime write any decent apps in windows phone 8. (reality distortion field)

marcus26 says:

Lets be honest, although I love it, for the general public Windows Phone has had the issue of dragging Microsofts bad reputation along with it. They managed to get over that with the Xbox, but the mobile market is a very different one. Consumers are attached to their iPhone, Android and Blackberry (and windows phone!) devices in a different way than gamers were atached to the PS2. I think the only way windows phone will get mass adoption is to:

  1. increase the number of apps and availability of popular apps/games, which they seem to have had a good go at with WP8 - improving the development options and adding unity ect. Time will tell if this plays out into a platform which makes developers more willing to get their apps up without delay.
  2. Make sure carriers are actually trying to sell the phones. I don't know what it's like now but when I bought my windows phone the guy in the store was pretty intent on selling me an android phone. Windows phone has been out for ages and I have only recently seen high street stores actually advertising it in shop windows - which is a good sign that they may be addressing this issue too.
  3. Improve Microsoft's own reputation.

That last one they have sorted in my mind with the consistent rebranding and just generally putting some more interesting products out. However, the average Mac user who left Windows back in the day because he wanted to be Justin Long probably won't have noticed yet. MS have changed a lot and I think it's only a matter of time until the jokes start to get old and people start to realise. People are already realising how tiresome iOS has become, especially when their friends are flashing android phones about. So it only takes a minor level of adoption for people to look at someone elses device in envy. 

Syolaar says:

Biggest issue in Canada is exposure. Only 2 of our 4 biggest carriers have a WP in their line up. Many people interested, no one offering...

Sorry but, I think alot of people want windows phone its just there either scared of leaving Apple or Android, or they are stuck on there two year contract. And I'm ok with people telling me how great there phone is, but I hate it when they push me for it, I like windows phone and there's nothing Apple and Android can do about it.

And to add to it if my phone can do all the same thing that there's can but faster why would I go to the slower one, beat my friend who's a Apple fanatic and beat his 4s easy but he wouldn't have it, by the way in using a 1st Gen focus rev 1.4 so I get the updates after everyone else, but I still love it

Im sure there are many of us who would disagree with his "assessment" - sent from my Focus S... ;)

snowmutt says:

Word!!!  (Just felt left out, Dave...)
 
Also sent from my Focus S. 
 

blackprince says:

These are also the same people who speculated the crash of 2008 into existence. I read this earlier while doing some stock research for my impending buy of Nokia shares and think he has got it all wrong. He would probably be in the same group of people who didn't see iOS coming or saw RIM fail miserably or the meteroic rise of Android. He evens reccomends a short on the stock which shows you his true intentions for the stock, which means he is spreading bad news just to see the stock tank some so he and others can make money. A bastard really.

winbot says:

Don't be too surprised. That's just how stock analysts work. It's pretty much a known fact that you're not supposed to listen to them. When buying stocks, you're supposed to follow and understand the long term strategies of the company you're buying stocks from. I'm lucky because I bought stocks when Nokia bottomed in July. Personally, for me, I see Nokia as a very good long term investment simply because I have a good understanding of where they're heading in parallel to Microsoft and confident in their decisions.
Analysts are only good at regurgitating old news and creating short term drama.

sdreamer says:

I'm sorry, but Android only has mindshare amongst enthusiast, not the common layman as indicated. Most people don't even know what Android is, but know their phone is a Droid (not to be confused with the OS it runs) or Galaxy phone. People go to Verizon looking for a Droid or an iPhone, not an Android Phone. I'm not talking about elders, it even happens amongst the young. In my university class only about 5 out of 88 know the differences, people only know iPhone, Droid, Blackberry, or Galaxy. It is not uncommon to hear "oh I can get that app? But my phone is a Droid not a Galaxy?" in the end Windows Phone needs to establish a brand name such as what Nokia is attempting with the Lumia name and also flood the market, which is where Android dominance is (not in mindshare like Apple).

I work at retail in electronics, and people are actually rather interested in Android in general. Truth is though, non-enthusiasts tend to call all of them "Droids" regardless of brand or carrier. Verizon's marketing was just a little too good in that regard.

Also, sadly, as somebody who sells phones to the general populous on a regular basis, I must admit that consumer awareness and even worse, desire, tend to be pretty low. Far too often, when I suggest WP7, people make snide comments about viruses (!) and scoff. To make matters worse, we don't even sell any WP products on contract here. The only thing we have is the Lumia 900 on prepaid, but it's $300 so nobody seems to care.

:/

winbot says:

We need Pureview Technology with alot of camera accessories. For example, a motorcycle helmet accessory to hold your Pureview phone for filming your drives when showing off to your friends. That will create a massive chain effect that will trickle down to a huge demographic.

I dont listen to much to these people. just like I dont pay attention to the articles that say MS will overtake RIM etc in 2056.

wpjoe says:

WordPerfect

MadSci2 says:

The Windows brand is so tarnished, and MS and its partners can't seem to market well. Drop the "Windows" brand completely and people will be much more interested. Calling their Tablet the "Surface", and not "Windows Tablet" was the best move thy,vw made in years. Just rebranns

MadSci2 says:

Sorry, clumsy fingers, I was sayingS should rebrand Windows Phone to "Surface Phone" and they would have two integrated devices sharing a common POSITIVE brand.

DalekSnare says:

He was right and wrong. It was obvious that he had no idea what he was talking about when he said that MS has been trying for years and it isn't working, as if WP7/8 were just more WinMo. The first really competitive version of WP7, Mango, has been available for less than a year. On the other hand, he is right in that most consumers THINK that WP7/8 is just more WinMo, because they continue to be clueless. Popular wisdom is that Microsoft is old and lagging behind, and it will take years for people to get a clue if marketing doesn't do a much better job of giving it to them. It's like last decade, when it took 5 years for people to notice AMD was making blatantly better processors than Intel, and by the time people woke up, Core 2 was out and AMD's superiority was at an end. As long as Microsoft maintains its "marathon" plan, and waits patiently for people's perceptions to catch up with reality, WP will do fine.

Old and lagging behind????? Um look at apple number one most popular piece of shit tablet n phone and there older then Microsoft so age ain't shit to do with it lol

snowmutt says:

Your being to defensive and missed the point of his post.  Apple was the cutting edge device- about 3 years ago.  Now it is a dependable but truly outdated device.  At some point, users will have a backlash against it.  But it takes time for people to be willing to move away from what they know.
WP started 2 years ago, has a unique UI, and is being developed as a cutting edge OS that is part of a unified ecosystem.  That takes time.  When people become bored of the iPhone but do not want Android MS can offer something great.  But it takes time for people to give something new a chance.
 
Relax, pizza.  It was a pro-MS comment.

bevt says:

First I confess - I say at least once a day  "I miss webOS".  I really hope Microsoft listens to the users and fills some of the holes in the OS (full phone backup please).  I'm pulling for WP and Microsoft.  I agree that "windows"  in the name of anything can be a curse and a blessing.   Windows might stand for something with a certain consumer but those aren't the people buying the latest mobile device.
 

snowmutt says:

WebOS.... sigh.  What a waste. 
*moment of silence..*

Microsoft doesn't need badass sells in phone market we have the XBOX!!!!! WINDOWS SOFTWARE!!!AND ALL THE OTHER GREAT HARDWARE LIKE THE KINECT so who ever Pierre is sounds like a poodle lol

ahuczek says:

the first 20 comments or so made me smh. i love my windows phone to death. absolutely the best phone and OS ive ever owned but im not blind to the truth. theyre not just hating, theyre thinking rationally. 
win phone is a fantastic product but the market has shown that its not just viable yet. a lot are saying wp8 is the last straw really but the advantage microsoft has is the fact that they have the assets to struggle in a market for years until they succeed. the xbox is the perfect example. they didnt make any money there for close to 10 years. thats an insane business model but when youre a billion dollar company you can do that.
i really hope they make a strong push with win 8 and get at least 10 percent share but i honestly wouldnt be surprised at all if the needle barely moves. sad but true.

MediaCastleX says:

I must have this persons information and simple convince them otherwise...what the HELL am I? Some erratic lunatic who just has their head on wrong?? I swear meat puppets like this make me SICK!!! I swear these people will regret their words... >=(

lippidp says:

Ferragu can lick my ass. He says Win8 tablets stand a chance, but doesn't think WP8 will rise as a result? He also doesn't account for the fact that almost everyone that has Android knows it sucks and that many iPhone users are sick of them. There are plenty of people ready to jump.

Anyway, back to reality in the now. Here are the curent sales rankings on bestbuy.com as of today:

AT&T (80 phones offered)
29. Samsung Focus Flash (29. a week ago, 27. a month ago)
38. Nokia Lumia 900 Black (30. a week ago, 26. a month ago)
45. Nokia Lumia 900 White (61. a week ago, 55. a month ago)
46. Nokia Lumia 900 Cyan (62. a week ago, 57. a month ago)
54. Samsung Focus 2 (40. a week ago, 52. a month ago)
66. HTC Titan (67. a week ago, 53. a month ago)
67. Samsung Focus S (68. a week ago, 60. a month ago)
72. HTC HD7S (74. a week ago, 74. a month ago)
HTC Titan II is not offered
Nokia Lumia 900 Pink is not offered

T-Mobile (27 phones offered)
23. Nokia Lumia 710 Black (14. a week ago, 13. a month ago)
24. Nokia Lumia 710 White (19. a week ago, 11. a month ago)
25. HTC Radar (24. a week ago, 19. a month ago)

Verizon (64 phones offered)
53. HTC Trophy (55. a week ago, 51. a month ago)

Sprint (43 phones offered)
None offered

Xaphoon148 says:

WHO is bernard daggott...?

procen says:

He is my dog that shit a lot of nonsense, you can kick him if you want. he he he

Xaphoon148 says:

Lol keep him of the news... ;-)

Xaphoon148 says:

How much is appppppellleell paying these clowns. Sounds like they are trying to create an iTruth...
But truth is that wp8 are so far ahead of Android and the other thingy that the smartphoneworld is reborn.

engige says:

Total nonsense. There is room for a third ecosystem and Windows Phone will succeed. There is no sweet victory without haters though so let them keep yapping.
 

Seasword says:

Detail guys detail. These analysts can analyze all they want, but if there is lack of details it becomes nothing. Beside that, I want to know how the survey was performed and the questions asked. Did they screen properly with question like, "Have you ever heard Windows Phone" ? If yes continue to next page and if not don't.
 
Another thing mentioned is patent, well there is also lack of detail there..

nimatra says:

Those who enjoy Windows 8 will consider Windows Phone 8.

Lobbie1978 says:

This firm has Android and/or Apple shares, no doubt. What a bunch of crap. WP8 is the only OS which innovates and renewes the thinking on mobile OS's. It's gonna succeed. It will take a while, but it will succeed.
You know why? Just because the one thing they got right:
 
Smartphone Operating Systems benefit from ecosystem dynamics
 
WP8 will be part of the Microsoft ecosystem with tablets, Cloud services, XBOX, Office etc. That will be one of the reasons they will succeed. If someone buys a W8 tablet, their next phone will be a WP8 phone.
 
We should ignore these moron analizing firms. They make no sense at all.

This is hilarious! Every one of my friends who had seen my Windows phone wants one. I switched from an iPhone a few months ago and I'm still wondering how I lived without one!

I agree with an an earlier post that Microsoft and partners need to blow more whistles.... If you go into the phone shops in Milton Keynes in the UK you can quite often barely see the WP line up as it is swollowed up by iPhone and Android-iPhone rubbish...

pr0phecy says:

And I simply don't want an iPhone or Android device.

rex.reyesiii says:

LOL yeah, I didn't even know "they" existed.

Son1ccoders says:

And not a single f*#k was given that day!
1.) Reads BS article
2.) Laughs
3.) Continues saving for Wp8

Sy7ygy says:

HAHA, look at these replies! Fanboyistic pretentious bullshit. If you lot enjoy your phone; great. But do not try and preach over a qualified market expert firm if they are right or wrong. I bought a Lumia on release to be plagued with problems until 6 months into the contract to fixed then to be told that basically Microsoft will not be supporting my 6 month old phone. Disgusting. I will be heading back to Apple after this and leaving this dead platform too all the dinosaurs and self-righteous zealots.

Xaphoon148 says:

By all means, go back to the stoneage :-)

WinFan1 says:

1. most people bash on windows phone because of preference bias. To elaborate a little the only people who i see as pretentious are your iphone users. What you see here are people who see potential in a mobile OS that seperates them from the flock of iphones and androids everyone seems so taken by.
2. Sucks that you had issues but dont base the entire platform on the fact that you had a bad time with a phone you bought.
3. These people are no more qualified to tell me what phone i want than a bowl of oatmeal.
4. please go back to ios because its pessimistic people like you that are so scared of change that make me and most of the people who are excited about new technology and new ideas sick to their stomach.
5. Fanboys really? WE<<as in the 5% of users who enjoy this platform are the fanboys not the 50 odd percent on android or the 30 something percent on ios? Really we are the fanboys, i think you may just be retarded.

hwangeruk says:

@Syn7ygy from todays stories on this very website:
http://www.wpcentral.com/microsoft-earned-736-million-windows-phone-fy-2012
 
Dead? WP8 = kinda Windows RT = lots of apps coming real soon now.
Devs can take an Unreal engine game and with little effort port it.
As above MS still made a ton of cash on WP
Ballmer has already said he will not leave this space
 
Really, you have been a douche about this before. Its not dead, you are just being a child.
Go and play with your toys, and leave us adults to mature discussion.

Sy7ygy says:

You fucking idiot. It was Apple who DEFINED the Smartphone, made it viable. What was there before 2007? Monochrome crap thats what. Typical fool.. You are exactly the kind of goon who would work for Microsoft and exactly the kind of goon which would fail alongside them. Pathetic.

gregoron says:

I really want WP to work and I think it will. I would not want to get stuck with old Apple and wild west Android.

A friend was trying to convince me me his Android us better than my WP. Everytime he shows me the UI, the apps, and how supposedly responsive it is, I'm thinking, I'm glad I went with Windows. I don't need the 100 different fonts and styles his Droid UI has. I'm also am not an App hog. I like the simplicity and coherence of my WP.

hwangeruk says:

Android is horrible.
 
iPhone to be fair is a decent proppostion. I'd get another iPhone.
Even though a new battery cost me 80 quid to replace!
Lots of Apps. Good hardware.
 I have Skydrive and Hotmail (IMHO best email and storage right now) and Windows 8 is fabulous I have been using release code for weeks now. Love it.
I have an Xbox too. Dont we all? So WP8 just plugs right into my world.
The only 2 quality options are iPhone and WP. I do hope Blackberry 10 is good, but I just can't see it.
 

Mouthsmasher says:

I tend to agree with the "research" a bit. Frankly, Microsoft lacks the intangible coolness factor. I tend to think that a lot of Windows Phone success is riding on W8 operating system. If they can pull it off and sell well with the tablets, then people will be much more interested in the phone because they understand the UI, are used to it, and want their phone to tie into the ecosystem. 

These guys are leaving a lot of stuff outside their analysis.
There wont be any sudden momentum shift, but a lot of little factors will build up to create Wp 8 Success

Hardware: there is a lot of flexibility on the hardware that can be used on Wp8... This is a positive change that will drive better hardware.. Some momentum there

OEMs: nobody is doing very well with Android but samsung. The HTCs and LGs will put a lot of fresh energy on making money with WP... more momentum

Blackberry dying/dead: this will leave the #3 spot open. Many analysts predict WP will surpass balckberry by mid 2013...

Business: Wp8 will be very business oriented, and microsoft already has that market controlled with their desktops, office suites, and windows servers. It will be easier for them that for nobody else. They WILL adopt it

Echosystem: if tablets and Windows 8 succeed, and evreyone thinks they will, people will get used to the UI and buy into it. Apps they purchase on one system will be on the other... Apps develop on one system will most likely built for the other, and most importantly, worked accross them... Microsoft  could bundle the three (or 4 if you count XBOX) screens... Just imagine getting a phone, a tablet, a PC and an XBOX 360 for 1200 bucks... Its possible, do the math.
WP UI and concept is amazing... EVERYONE likes it... high reviews, high customer satisfaction... The mayor problem with it was the lack of apps, and the lack of hardware specs that were competitive head to head with android phones... well, those two problems are about to go away... IT WILL WORK
 

splash112 says:

Research is sh#t!

igonzo03 says:

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The problem is that they are a bit late and Windows 7.5 was like a warm up before the fight (not a finished product), the real competition starts now and it's obvious that next year is very important. Microsoft needs to triple the amount of available apps asap (which should be acomplished if it's now easier for developers to publish universal apps), I'm also counting on a great Win Phone 8.1 and 8.2 (or 8.1 and a big 8.5) update next year for all newly released devices to show people that they can trust with their support. 
Microsoft has a really good product in their hands and it all depends on how good it will be when compared to others. We have to remember that Android will release version 5.0 and Apple iOS 7 in 2013 so I hope to see some awesome stuff soon (Windows 8.5 and 9.0 in 2014 will have to astonish if they want to kick some ass).

 
 

 

johnmcd348 says:

I haven't read the article but, I can understand the resoning behind it.  From the beginning of WP7, it seems as though Microsoft has gone above and beyond to shot themselves in the foot with both development and marketing.  They had a strong platform with Windows Mobile and then announced they would be moving on to a different Platform OS with Windows Phone 7.  This was essentially the same kernal as WM, except reworked to a point that it was completely incompatible with the previous base of software that users had over the years and making it a mroe closed system.  During the push of thsi new system, there was little fan fare, little marketing and little effort on the part of Microsoft to really get it out there as the replacement it was supposed to be. 
Now, they are moving past WP7 with WP8, again, essentially a new OS that was in the works at the same time as teh WP7 OS and they annouce it as they are moving past WP7.  This time at least, they are making it compatible with WP7 apps/software.  There needs to be marketing to get this in the minds of the people and examples out there to let people know what this system can do and how it can do it better than the other OS's out there.  Most people, except the loyal tech crowd, see this as just another Smartphone that does the same thing as the $20 one they can get form their carrier.  iOS has the marketing and allure of having 1 device model, with 1 OS producer, Apple.  And, for that reason, tehy can charge a premium.  Droid has many device makers producing many devices and for that reason, they can cover the spectrum of price points.  Microsoft doesn't have the Allure or the price points to sell itself well at this time.  And, until they change that with their marketing, they will not succeed as well as we want them to.

Kiddo2050 says:

Sorry if I'm repeating, but this is so dumb the answer to it was even on Mad Men.
Don dismisses marketing research of this type becausde you have to "sell" products to consumers. They won't know what they want until you sell it to them.

OstiPosti says:

As a WP follower since the beginning.... I've seen the progress and the challenges (and mistakes) MS has made along the way.  I admit that the launching of the WP needed a bigger bang and more promotions (advertising is little at best), but I have yet met ONE person that has used my phone (1st Focus, 2nd Focus S, Now: Lumia 900) that has not admitted that the phone is a good phone.  In some cases even the word "cool" has escaped their lips.  I know what I (we) have on my WP and I know that it might not have all the coolest apps (the FIRST thing that MS has to fix), but I also know that for your everyday use, this phone comes second to NONE.  Sleeping and living with the enemy (my wife and my 13 yr old son both have iPhones), I have had plenty of opportunities to play with the iPhone and see it up close.  It is a piece of art....period!!! The phone is impressive and what it does it does extremely well (don't hang me yet guys.... I'm not done), but I've also seen how it has become the 30+ guy in a frat house (young in comparison, but too old to be cool in college, NO MATTER WHAT!)... I take public transportation to work and I see your "average" people on their phones... TREND:  Older people have iPhones and younger people have something else.. I have seen in a few instances some college kids and high school kids with WPs (and yes..although uncool of me I have gone and acknowledged their phone and pointed out to them their individuality...sorry :( ).
The one thing that has me SURE that WP will be a success is $$$$$$.  NO ONE has more of it than MS.  They have enough money to run not one marathon but 100.  Some companies may have been declared more profitable than MS of late, but that's one aspect...when it comes to cash..MS is the cow!  Unlimited income from all their other products (Windows, Office, Exchange, Server, SQL, etc...) give them the ability to do whatever they want and wait EVERYBODY out...It is unavoidable.  Remember this guys:
2007- 2008 Top gaming consoles in the world: #1 Playstation #2 Wii #3 Xbox
2009-2010 #1 Wii #2 Playstation #3 Xbox
2010 - Today #1 Xbox #2 Playstation #3 Wii
This was happening at the same time that MS was LOSING money for EACH Xbox it sold... Selling a product at a LOSS???? Who does that?? More importantly WHO can AFFORD THAT?? NO ONE.... Only MS!! Therefore, they stayed the course and now the Xbox has been the reigning champion for a few years in a row.  But it took years.
The same will happen with WP.  The phones and the apps will keep getting better and little by little people will start buying them and telling their friends and WP will overtake the market... BUT SLOWLY.  Ultimately WP will take a big market share because it is a great product with amazing features, but to all that are hating out there, they need to remember this... When you OWN 93% of the world's operating systems...you can wait out anyone and come out on top at then end.
I'm done..... Man it felt good to let that out!

igonzo03 says:

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I don't know, consoles do not change yearly like phones or tablets so waiting isn't the best thing to do when your competition is growing. If Microsoft doesn't become a major player until the end of next year then they will be in trouble in 2014/2015 (when Apple will unite their OS X with iOS and all of a suddent they'll have most of the market).

 

kikoswp7 says:

I hope they do start working on windows phones. Im still rockin my unlocked Samsung focus first Gen and I still love this old dinosaur that I sold my iPhone 4 after getting my windows phones. I just want to see more apps and games like on ios

The Courier says:

Not sure what sort of research Bernstein are doing, because i want a Windows Phone. I have two months left before my contract ends with my iPhone 4, and i will be jumping ship to the new Nokia WP 8 devices. Since the very first day i got the iPhone i have never been happy with it, cant wait for WP8. So Bernstein, stick that in your pipe and smoke it lol. 

polaris13 says:

Pardon my French but Pierre is a jerk. And this coming from an avid Android user who is thinking of switching to WP8!!!
 
What Pierre doesns't mention is that once win8 comes out there will be a big user base. And MS has made it clear that apps you purchase for win8 will work on WP8. This is BIG! And it is the one reason I am thinking of switching from android to WP8.
Bottom line is you're either using a mac or a pc and the truth is the majority of the world is using a pc. Some will be slow to upgrade to win8 but all new pc buyers will be getting win8 which makes those people great candidates for new WP8 users.
Sorry iSheep but we live in a windows world. If I can buy an app that will work on my pc and my phone AND my tablet its a no brainer for me.
Again I am a hardcore android user and lover but its hard to compete against truely universal app availability.
Another poitn about ecosystem that Pierre missed completely. Once developers start to make apps for win8, and we know ALL software people will, the windows store will be huge. Equal to both itunes and google play.
What has kept me from even considering WP was the crappy hardware. Now that the new gear will match whats available for android & iphone the reason not to switch are less and less.
I do love android and its a great system but win8/wp8 has intrigued me and I'm seriously considering making the switch when I'm up for my next phone upgrade.
 

iamoniwaban says:

Who are these guys and why do they think they know what the consumer wants? I want a windows phone, in fact I have two, and I plan on getting more. I am a consumer, and I want a windows phone. That's my new slogan. This research "company" really sucks at what they do and have nothing intelligent to add to this world.

dru2690 says:

What a stupid article biased to the bones.

graigsmith says:

im a consumer who wants an iphone 5 that doesn't suck.   its really dissapointing.  the aluminum phone gets BENT in people's pockets.  Also it scratches and scuffs too easily.  And the maps are really screwy right now.   Consumers don't want to buy a phone they have to worry about bending.   I wanted the iphone 5 and was waiting a while to buy it, but now with all these issuse surrounding the new design, i am no longer interested.   i love ios, but if they deliver a phone with such a poor design that it bends then i am going elsewhere.
i don't like android. or blackberry. 
hello windows phone.  it's interesting and new. and i love the lumia 920 design. curved glass and a solid hard plastic back. wireless charging. I am going to get a black lumia 920

GT2010 says:

WOw -_-
Bucnh of Retards here
xD dont spam