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26

Nokia predicted to ship 37 million Windows Phones in 2012

WP Central

Morgan Stanley, a global financial services firm, has predicted that Nokia will be shipping 37 million Windows Phones in 2012. Not only that, but they expect the number to almost double in 2013 to 64 million. This is depending on how aggressive Microsoft, Nokia and AT&T market the Lumia 900. If Europe is anything to go by, we're sure Nokia will be pushing extremely hard with the software giant and U.S. carrier close behind. With a rumoured $200 million budget available between them, we should look forward to some interesting promotions and events being set up.

As Steve Ballmer mentioned at CES, they've got a long way to go, but the road is looking positive should a strong push be effective.

Source: AllThingsD

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Comments

There are 26 comments. Sign in to comment

1jaxstate1 says:

LOL! Man, they going to have to sell a shitload of phones to sell Q2 - Q4! 

aubreyq says:

Sheesh! That's ambitious. I'd be ecstatic for Windows Phone if it becomes a reality, though.

Bruno H says:

That was actually not a good estimate...
They estimate that Nokia only sold 1 million Lumias Q4 2011.
With only a third the markating budget for Lumia, last year Nokia sold 4 Million N8 phones in EU. Seems to me that the estimate is dead wrong or Lumia is not selling as good as it should, considering the money spent compard to Nokia N8.
I cant wait until we get some real numbers and hard facts from Nokia regarding the sales during Q4 2011...

zebigboss says:

the lumia 800 was initially launched to only 6 european countries. since it was at first restricted to these coutries, 1 million is a fair approximation. you should also not forget that the lumia went on sales on the 16th november which is rather late.

blnwp says:

@Bruno H
I'm agreeing with you that estimate is off-base.
But not sure how you are saying Lumia 800 is not selling as much as N8. Nokia publicly said Lumia 800 was their best selling smartphone ever and it outsold N95. Isn't it? And then how N8 outsold Lumia 800? Is Nokia not considering N8 as a smartphone maybe? Or may be I misunderstood Nokia's statement.
Edit : Okay, got it. I think they meant Lumia 800 was their best ever release week or so. Not in total absolute numbers.

Winterfang says:

lol Nokia you are a crazy. You can't sell that much by having awful phones on t-mobile and no phones in sprint or verizon.

Nataku4ca says:

US isn't the only market available to sell u know... 710 isn't bad either and is really cheap, I'm pretty sure it comes out today, why don't you go have a look and play with it, may be you'll end up with one :P

Premium1 says:

Except in the states most people want a phone with the "spec sheet" and aren't going to sign a contract for the 710 on verizon when verizon is all about their lte network and people always want that extra speed even if they won't benefit from it.

invertme says:

Only phone nerds care about that spec sheet. That is a very small percentage of smart phone users.

Mouthsmasher says:

The hugely vast majority of people who buy phones don't care about the specs of their phone. I mean, think of all the Android users out there. That's probably a good number to use as a starting estimate for how many people don't investigate this kind of thing when buying.

Odog4ever says:

You pretty much summed it up. Majority of smartphone customer mistakenly trust the store rep to point them to the latest and greatest phone or on the flip side they want the dirt cheap phone whatever that happens to be.
Us small vocal minority of enthusiast may care, but not in every situation.
No where in the equation was homework done or actual understanding of technology reached. That's why people thought their iPhone phones were running on a 4g network.

Justin.TV312 says:

The lumia 710 is an excellent phone for only $50. Its much better than a $50 Android that's for sure so take your pathetic opinion elsewhere.

Premium1 says:

better phone or not they aren't selling as seen why only 1 carrier(at&t is really backing wp) but hey I mean you can always get the 710 since you are on tmo=) But i understand you are still testy over getting banned from the forums.

Justin.TV312 says:

The radar is the top rated phone on Tmo and they are even showing commercials for both the radar and lumia. That's more than your crappy expensive carrier has done, its only a temp ban and I wasn't even talking to you.

Premium1 says:

that will only last until they get an iphone. Just like sprint did they will be advertising the shit out of the iphone and sell their souls for it.

Residing says:

@Winterfang...It's not like T-Mobile has a lot of customers anyway; the Lumia 710 is just a small token for T-Mobile.  Microsoft will sell more Lumia 800's than the entire T-Mobile customer base!

languedoctor says:

Microsoft alone will sell 34 million Lumia 800s?
Okay.

Terrin says:

First it's all Nokia wp7 handsets world wide they are in a ton of markets now or coming In the next 2 months so not just 800s but 710s and 900s.
Besides this 34 million is tough to hit unless it gained a ton or stem from word of mouth and slick advertisment

Premium1 says:

Actually it says "ship" nothing about selling that many and won't sell that many.

$200 million is not a lot of money to spend on advertising. Look at the top 10 advertisers in the US. #10 spent around $750 million and #1 spent around $2.5 billion.
$200 million means we'll see 2 different commercials, a few newspaper and magazine ads and a lot of internet banner ads.

Premium1 says:

Agree, especially since if they want to advertise at the superbowl that alone is multiple millions of dollars for 1 30 second commercial. $200 million is nothing.

publicposts says:

I would guess that this is anticipating very heavy sales in developing markets and/or of low end devices.
 
I currently work in one of the UK's top 5 carrier independent and impartial phone shops and despite being a huge fan of wp find microsoft's os it is near impossible to sell. My store has huge piles of htc radars and titans gathering dust due to absolutely no interest. The nokia 800's are selling slowly but this is primarily due to orange uk offering them at heavily discounted prices ($30 per month for a free handset) and even then the sales are lagging far behind all other operating systems.
 
It is a marketing nightmare as the public perception of microsoft is so horrendous. The problem is such that if I can convince a customer to play with the phone (which requires a strong recomendation) they without exception remark about how nice it is... however, as soon as they notice the windows logo they immediately close down and return to the galaxy sII/iphone 4 or even the frankly horrendous blackberries. Granted it may just be the subsection of consumers that take/renew contracts in a store such as ours but that does represent a very large chunk of the market. Sadly, people place more stock in branding over user experience and it will take a slow growth stemming primarily from word of mouth to surmount this (although reassuringly specs very rarely play any role in phone sales despite the impression one might obtain from tech site comments sections).
The only ways to currently compete at the mid-high range smartphone market that I can envisage is a campaign strongly promoting the integration of social networking within the OS or speeding the availability of colourful handsets (it sounds silly but a white lumia would probably be sufficient to double current sales).
 
All in all, the staff perception where I work is that windows phone will overtake android but that process will involve a very slow but persistant growth. There is also a huge business market currently looking to abandon blackberry which unfortunately wp is also not ready to take advantage of and playing into the hands of android (many business insurers refuse to cover iphones here).

aubreyq says:

Interesting comment. Windows Phone OEMs have their work cut out for them.

publicposts says:

Indeed, but what can you sell?
Fantastic user experience - customers only find this after purchase or by word of mouth from friend/family member
Office - never a deal closer particularly as wp isn't ready for business usage
xbox live - means nothing without xbox compatability
zune - no one has heard of it
spec sheet - beaten by comparably priced androids
apps - less and more expensive than iphone/android
Price - not cheap enough to convince people to make the jump into a comparatively unknown os
 
If I am massively generalising: men come into the shop wanting as much power as they can get for their money which means an android handset whilst women want a white iphone or a blackberry for the physical keyboard.
 
I reckon the only niche which wp could gain traction quickly is that as blackberry is dying a death so there are a large amount of women that want an iphone but can't quite afford one - here a white lumia would be a massive winner.
 
Otherwise, MS needs to subsidise things to quicken the word of mouth recomendations in developed markets - not handsets or contracts as that is unsustainable - but for the next 6 months wp devices NEEDa £20/$30 voucher to spend in the marketplace.

erichon99 says:

I'll be happy if M$ can just overtake RIM and it's growth is trending up.   Doesn't need to be the top phone by any stretch of the imagination in 1 or 2 yrs.  Just be respectable enough to be a viable alternative to iOS and Android where developers will not ignore you.  That's all I expect and even that expectation is not an easy road.

Narr says:

In order for that to happen they need to get better server integration tools to the market so corps can manage the devices easily, lock them down and install management agents.