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Windows Phone poised to overtake RIM?

The technology research group Ovum is predicting that Android will drive smartphone market growth that is expected to double by 2016. The predictions will see Android owning 38% of the market, Apple owning 17.5% and Blackberry holding 16.5%.

What is interesting is that despite all the doom and gloom surrounding the NoDo headaches, Ovum has Windows Phone 7 claiming 17.2% of the market that will put it in the number three spot, ahead of RIM and not too far behind Apple. Ovum credits much of the predicted growth to help given by Nokia and their partnership with Microsoft.

However, Ovum points out that while there are potential rewards to the Nokia/Microsoft deal it also comes with risks. Ovum principal analyst Adam Leach states in the research release,

“For Microsoft the deal provides a committed handset partner that has the potential to make Windows Phone a mainstream smartphone platform. The risk to Microsoft is that other handset makers may choose not to compete with Nokia and may turn their backs on Windows Phone.”

While we all share frustrations over the update woes, this report is just a friendly reminder of the potential Windows Phone 7 has. Who knows, if Microsoft and the carriers can get this update process down pat and Ovum's predictions hold true, Windows Phone 7 might even overtake Apple.

Source: Ovum Via: BGR

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Reader comments

Windows Phone poised to overtake RIM?

11 Comments

I'm pretty sure that Samsung and HTC have what it takes to compete with Nokia, especially in the US. And I strongly suspect Motorola will take a swing at WP, too, since they can't be too excited about becoming commoditized in the Android space.That said, MS needs to get updates out in a major way. WP7 is simply too feature poor to make up for with speed and slickness. I just found out there's no way to stream most audio on this supposedly consumer focused device!

I heard there's rumors that Motorola is working on a new OS internally. I think they probably want more freedom and control. They don't want the smartphone market to look like the PC industry where everyone has an identical OS.

That and they probably don't want to hand out OS updates or be forced to with regards to Android etc. If Motorola can limit the OS and spread out the newer version more it would boost sales in the end I'm sure.

People have to remember that much of the stuff MS gets out of the deal with Nokia will also trickle down to the other OEM makers as well. And while Nokia might have one or two pirks it shouldn't hold off HTC, Samsung and others either.

Poised is a pretty strong word to pull out of one analyst's 5-year forecast of a highly volatile market...Poised implies a state of readiness, and as much as I'm pulling for Windows Phone, ready to overtake RIM it ain't.

I dont believe that prediction, sorry I like WP7 but after 6 months of nothing but broken promises they have no chance of winning people over. MS is doing what they did with Windows Mobile, pretty much waiting to new handsets come out then waiting for old owner to be frustrated enough to just by the new handset and then 1-2mons later slowly start giving everyone else the update

"Windows Phone poised to overtake RIM?"Ok, but what is surprising? This is the minimum.RIM is already dead in my opinion. I tried the Torch 9800, and definitely this is such a crappy and confusing Frankenstein phone.

As others have mentioned, making a prediction so far in advance for this rapidly changing industry is udderly absurd and therefore has no bearing on the potential of WP7 or whatever version is available by then.An important point not mentioned by George is that Ovum assumes that the majority of Nokia smartphone customers will continue to be so after the switch to WP7. If anything, the WM experience has taught us that when users are forced to switch to a new OS, they're more likely to consider the alternatives and make a complete break with the past. Ovum assumption has yet to be tested.